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The Midterm Elections Preview: Red Wave Incoming



The Midterm Elections Are Almost Here

The 2018 Midterm election is considered by many as the well-anticipated sequel to the 2016 Presidential Election. Predictions are coming from both sides of aisle claiming certain victory. What is pure hubris and what can be considered a fact?

Pollsters were historically wrong in predicting the outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election. Sam Wang, a top election forecaster, and Professor at Princeton University predicted that Hillary Clinton had at least a 98 percent chance of securing the presidency. His failed prediction led to Wang eating a live bug on CNN.

Wang was not the only pollster who was off significantly in 2016. Nate Silver, who runs the polling website fivethirtyeight.com, also predicted a decisive victory for Clinton. Silver predicted that Clinton had a 71.4 percent chance of winning the presidency. The Silver prediction on a 302 electoral vote landslide was also misguided.

Fact Versus Wishful Thinking

The mainstream polling world is chock full of leftist ideologues who cannot separate their political leanings from their polling models. As a result, many of the voting models being used for the 2018 Midterm elections can be taken with a grain of salt. So, what is going on? What party is going to come out on top after November 6th?

What Are Mainstream Political Pollsters Saying?

The latest RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling on October 31st suggests the Democrats have a slight lead in the race for House majority (204-199) with 32 toss-up contests. 218 seats are needed for a House majority. On the Senate side, RCP is predicting a Republican advantage (50-44) with six tossups.

Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com is predicting an 85.7 percent chance that the Democrats retake the House and 85.5 percent chance that Republicans hold onto the Senate. A split decision. The Democrats have not controlled the House since before the 2010 Midterm elections. The GOP has dominated the House since 1994 with majorities in all years but (2006-2010). The GOP relinquished control of the House after the 2006 Midterm elections.

Predicting the Outcome for November 6

The first place you are going to want to check on the morning of November 6 Is the international sports betting websites. As recently as October 28th, sports booking website mybookie.com was predicting the GOP would hold on to the House and the Senate. Those odds have been fluctuating, and as of the morning of October 31st, the race for control of the House was even at -120. In bettors terms, this means you would have to put down $120 to make $100.

The odds have evened most likely due to the two perceived negative actions against the GOP in the past week. The bookmakers are betting the actions of Cesar Sayoc, the MAGA bomber and the tragic massacre at the Pittsburgh synagogue last weekend will temper GOP enthusiasm.

Trends and Other Sources

Several prominent independent pollsters on Twitter have been putting together a different picture than their mainstream counterparts. One pollster, Larry Schweikart, has been following the early voting and absentee trends and has been providing consistent updates.

Another Twitter pollster Michael E. Newton has been giving daily updates on early voting numbers. As of Wednesday morning, Newton is still showing promising signs for the GOP.

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Richard Baris of the Peoples Pundit has also been providing Midterm election forecasting. He believes there will be no “Beto Blue Wave.”

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My Prediction For The Midterm Elections

Now that we have talked about the mainstream polling and alternative polling sources let us delve into what I think is going to happen on November 6th.

Here are my predictions:

The Race For Senate Majority

I am predicting a GOP supermajority in the Senate 63-37, with the GOP picking up 12 seats. I believe the mainstream media is underestimating the fervor of the GOP base. I do not believe the recent negative press is going to have a profound effect on voter turnout on election day. In actuality, the continuous negative press and demonization of the GOP base are helping to ensure that voters are going to be fired up and eager to get to the polls. I do not believe the same emotional energy will be present on the left. As a result, I foresee a Titanic shift in the Senate.

In specific races, I believe the mainstream media has been giving candidates such as Beto O’Rourke more credit than is due. I am predicting Ted Cruz will win his race with O’Rourke with more than four points.

The Tennessee, Arizona and Missouri Senate races are not going to be close. The Project Veritas videos have had a profound impact on the candidacies of Democrats Claire McCaskill, Phil Bredesen, and Kyrsten Sinema. All three were exposed for double speak and will not win their respective races. I am predicting 3-5 percent victories in each race.

I am also predicting several upsets that would be considered so by the mainstream media. I am predicting Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and New Jersey go to the Republicans. The New Jersey race features a very unpopular Robert Menendez versus Bob Hugin. I believe this race will be very close but will Hugin pulling off the upset victory with huge margins coming from Monmouth, Hunterdon, and Ocean counties.

I also believe John James of Michigan and Leah Vukmir of Wisconsin will record close race upsets. The biggest surprise of the night will come from Minnesota where Jim Newberger will oust Amy Klobuchar. This race has been considered all but over for some time now. It even seems Klobuchar is so confident of victory that she is starting to spread money to other races. However, the 2016 election saw Minnesota trending to the right. I believe this race will be very close but the upset being captured by Newburger. This victory will be the most demoralizing of the night for the Democrats.

The Race For House Majority

The million dollar question everyone has been asking is whether or not the GOP will lose the House for the first time since the Barack Obama administration. I am predicting the GOP will lose one seat in the House and will come out of the Midterms with a 234-201 majority.

I believe the Democratic Party will pick up KS-03. The KS-03 seat makes up the greater Kansas City area. The latest RealClearPolitics poll has a Democratic challenger Sharice Davids besting incumbent Kevin Yoder by 12 points. This congressional district has vacillated between Republican and Democrat control. The district voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. This is a vulnerable seat for the GOP, and I believe they will lose it on November 6th.

What Will Determine the Outcome on Nov 6?

The GOP base has been smeared and demonized for two years. The President which they elected has faced a constant barrage of personal attacks since the 2016 election. The GOP base is pissed off and will come out to the polls in record numbers on November 6th.

The left has miscalculated once again the resolve of the GOP. The country united in 2008 and elected the first African American president in Barack Obama. Independent swing voters fueled this enthusiasm from the Midwest. The rhetoric of Obama and the move to the far left of the Democratic Party has turned off voters. I expect this trend to continue on election day.

The Democratic Party will have to decide after the upcoming historical loss on whether or not it will abandon its progressive politics and disdain for middle America before the 2020 election cycle begins. As of this moment, there are no signs of that happening. Expect continued electoral losses by the Democratic Party until they can find common ground with the majority of Americans.



Jake Highwell / Guest Contributor
Jake Highwell is a political pundit and equal justice advocate with two decades of journalistic experience. Currently residing in the Democratic stronghold of Chicago and a recovering Obama voter, he strives to bring insight and commentary to the MAGA Nation.
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